[H-GEN] Re: Buying an Apple Powerbook...?????]
David de Groot
david-humbug at viking.org.au
Thu Jun 9 00:52:31 EDT 2005
Adrian Sutton wrote:
> x86 based Macs will start rolling out around this time next year.
> All Macs sold 2 years from now will be x86 based. It may be the
> powerbooks updated first or it may be the desktop line, as far as I'm
> aware Apple hasn't commented on this. Most of the speculation I've
> seen is that the PowerBooks will be the first to ship as they are
> stuck on G4 chips and "desperately"[1] need a major revision.
>
I read that the Powerbooks and PowerMacs would be last to be converted,
with the Mac Mini, iBook, iMac (and if it continues eMac), to be done
first. I believe the rationale was that they could iron out the
performance issue on the cheap end of the market before impacting their
higher end customers. Of course now I can't find the article I read, to
verify it's sources...
>> * OS X itself won't be fully x86 until after Leopard (this is a
>> prediction on my part, but I reckon a fairly safe one).
>
>
> OS X is fully x86 today to select and premier members (it's OS X
> 10.4.1), even more than that, OS X has always been fully x86
> according to Apple. I'd suggest you grab an ADC account if you want
> to know more[2] (the free online one is a good start but there is
> probably more information available for select and premier members).
>
Ah, what I meant was that you probably won't see an x86 only version of
OS X until after Leopard (i.e. they won't drop PPC versions of OSX until
after then).
>> * The average lifetime for a laptop is about 3 to 4 years, since
>> Leopard is coming out late 2006, it's likely that an x86 only OSX
>> won't be out until at least 2007, more likely Aug 2008.
>
>
> I would be exceptionally surprised to see an x86 only OS X before
> 2007 and probably not until at least 2010 (this however is total
> speculation). While the cost of maintaining an OS is high, the cost
> of dropping your supported install base from around 4% to well under
> 1% is seriously detrimental to the number of developers willing to
> develop for your platform. That said, Apple has a tendency to be
> very headstrong and push people to upgrade.
>
> You should expect most developers to provide universal binaries[3]
> for there programs. Big greedy players like Microsoft and Adobe will
> most likely charge for the new version which supports Intel macs and
> developers are more likely to not update their apps for Intel than to
> drop support for PPC. You should expect that more software will be
> available for PPC based macs for the next 2-3 years.
Yes, this was the point I was trying to make.
> Also, if you were a mac user when Apple transitioned from 68k to PPC
> you'll remember how good Apple is for transitioning things. I
> wouldn't expect this transition to be any different.
I wasn't, I started out in 2001 (before that I'd used Macs but not owned
one), with 10.1, although my first gen white iBook (500Mhz G3) came with
OS 9 as well.
> My advice would be to not worry about the change, it is unlikely to
> have a significant impact on users. If the current Mac lineup best
> meets your requirements then you should buy one, if not you
> shouldn't. Attempting to take the future into account when buying
> computer hardware is a very hit and miss affair.
I agree, if you wait for the next big thing before purchasing, you'll
never purchase.
Dave
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