[H-GEN] Re: Buying an Apple Powerbook...?????]

David de Groot david-humbug at viking.org.au
Thu Jun 9 00:52:31 EDT 2005


Adrian Sutton wrote:

> x86 based Macs will start rolling out around this time next year.   
> All Macs sold 2 years from now will be x86 based.  It may be the  
> powerbooks updated first or it may be the desktop line, as far as I'm  
> aware Apple hasn't commented on this.  Most of the speculation I've  
> seen is that the PowerBooks will be the first to ship as they are  
> stuck on G4 chips and "desperately"[1] need a major revision.
>
I read that the Powerbooks and PowerMacs would be last to be converted, 
with the Mac Mini, iBook, iMac (and if it continues eMac), to be done 
first. I believe the rationale was that they could iron out the 
performance issue on the cheap end of the market before impacting their 
higher end customers.  Of course now I can't find the article I read, to 
verify it's sources...

>> * OS X itself won't be fully x86 until after Leopard (this is a  
>> prediction on my part, but I reckon a fairly safe one).
>
>
> OS X is fully x86 today to select and premier members (it's OS X  
> 10.4.1), even more than that, OS X has always been fully x86  
> according to Apple.  I'd suggest you grab an ADC account if you want  
> to know more[2] (the free online one is a good start but there is  
> probably more information available for select and premier members).
>
Ah, what I meant was that you probably won't see an x86 only version of 
OS X until after Leopard (i.e. they won't drop PPC versions of OSX until 
after then).

>> * The average lifetime for a laptop is about 3 to 4 years, since  
>> Leopard is coming out late 2006, it's likely that an x86 only OSX  
>> won't be out until at least 2007, more likely Aug 2008.
>
>
> I would be exceptionally surprised to see an x86 only OS X before  
> 2007 and probably not until at least 2010 (this however is total  
> speculation).  While the cost of maintaining an OS is high, the cost  
> of dropping your supported install base from around 4% to well under  
> 1% is seriously detrimental to the number of developers willing to  
> develop for your platform.  That said, Apple has a tendency to be  
> very headstrong and push people to upgrade.
>
> You should expect most developers to provide universal binaries[3]  
> for there programs.  Big greedy players like Microsoft and Adobe will  
> most likely charge for the new version which supports Intel macs and  
> developers are more likely to not update their apps for Intel than to  
> drop support for PPC.  You should expect that more software will be  
> available for PPC based macs for the next 2-3 years.

Yes, this was the point I was trying to make.

> Also, if you were a mac user when Apple transitioned from 68k to PPC  
> you'll remember how good Apple is for transitioning things.  I  
> wouldn't expect this transition to be any different.

I wasn't, I started out in 2001 (before that I'd used Macs but not owned 
one), with 10.1, although my first gen white iBook (500Mhz G3) came with 
OS 9 as well.

> My advice would be to not worry about the change, it is unlikely to  
> have a significant impact on users.  If the current Mac lineup best  
> meets your requirements then you should buy one, if not you  
> shouldn't.  Attempting to take the future into account when buying  
> computer hardware is a very hit and miss affair.

I agree, if you wait for the next big thing before purchasing, you'll 
never purchase.

Dave




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